AA Iguaçu 1–1 Apucarana: Result & Stats

AA Iguaçu

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Apucarana

Romao 35' (pen)

J. Rhyan 56'

5/7/2023

Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Municipal Antiocho Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

AA Iguaçu47%

×Draw28%

Apucarana25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AA IguaçuExpected goals in this matchApucarana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.90

AA Iguaçu

1.35

Apucarana

0.90

AA Iguaçu creates 50% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 24 away

1.21

creates per match

0.79

1.00

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

AA Iguaçu

1.21

Apucarana

0.79

allows per match

AA Iguaçu

1.00

Apucarana

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AA Iguaçu+0.00on par

Apucarana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AA Iguaçu ↓

Apucarana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

AA Iguaçu or draw

75%

AA Iguaçu or Apucarana

72%

Draw or Apucarana

53%

Winning margin

AA Iguaçu wins by 2+

22%

Apucarana wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

AA Iguaçu 1+ goals

74%

AA Iguaçu 2+ goals

39%

AA Iguaçu 3+ goals

15%

Apucarana 1+ goals

59%

Apucarana 2+ goals

23%

Apucarana 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

AA Iguaçu (draw refunded)

65%

Apucarana (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AA Iguaçu at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.00 · 24 matches

Apucarana away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.50 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AA Iguaçu attack 1.21 + Apucarana defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

Apucarana attack 0.79 + AA Iguaçu defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

AA Iguaçu scores more

47%

level

28%

Apucarana scores more

25%

AA Iguaçu at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "AA Iguaçu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

RomaoPenalty

56'

J. Rhyan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff