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AA Iguacu U20 vs Hope Internacional U20 — Paranaense U20 2024

AA Iguacu U20
AA Iguacu U20
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Hope Internacional U20
Hope Internacional U20
5/16/2024Paranaense U20Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 12Estádio Municipal Antiocho Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

AA Iguacu U2032%
×Draw29%
Hope Internacional U2038%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AA Iguacu U20
1.03
Hope Internacional U20
1.15

Hope Internacional U20 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 21 away

creates per match

AA Iguacu U20
0.17
Hope Internacional U20
1.14

allows per match

AA Iguacu U20
1.17
Hope Internacional U20
1.90

finishing

AA Iguacu U20+0.00on par
Hope Internacional U20+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AA Iguacu U20 ↓

Hope Internacional U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

AA Iguacu U20 or draw
62%
AA Iguacu U20 or Hope Internacional U20
71%
Draw or Hope Internacional U20
68%

Winning margin

AA Iguacu U20 wins by 2+
12%
Hope Internacional U20 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

AA Iguacu U20 1+ goals
64%
AA Iguacu U20 2+ goals
28%
AA Iguacu U20 3+ goals
9%
Hope Internacional U20 1+ goals
68%
Hope Internacional U20 2+ goals
32%
Hope Internacional U20 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

AA Iguacu U20 (draw refunded)
46%
Hope Internacional U20 (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AA Iguacu U20 at home — creates 0.17, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Hope Internacional U20 away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.90 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AA Iguacu U20 attack 0.17 + Hope Internacional U20 defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.03

Hope Internacional U20 attack 1.14 + AA Iguacu U20 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

AA Iguacu U20 scores more
32%
level
29%
Hope Internacional U20 scores more
38%

Hope Internacional U20 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hope Internacional U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AA Iguacu U20 vs Hope Internacional U20

Hope Internacional U20 beat AA Iguacu U20 1-0 in Paranaense U20 on May 16, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Antiocho Pereira in União da Vitória, Paraná.