AA Iguacu U20 0–2 Cianorte U20: Result & Stats

AA Iguacu U20

FT

0 – 2

Cianorte U20

4/27/2024

Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 9Estádio Municipal Antiocho Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

AA Iguacu U2034%

×Draw25%

Cianorte U2040%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AA Iguacu U20Expected goals in this matchCianorte U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.46

AA Iguacu U20

1.33

Cianorte U20

1.46

Cianorte U20 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

0.17

creates per match

1.75

1.17

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

AA Iguacu U20

0.17

Cianorte U20

1.75

allows per match

AA Iguacu U20

1.17

Cianorte U20

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AA Iguacu U20+0.00on par

Cianorte U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AA Iguacu U20 ↓

Cianorte U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

AA Iguacu U20 or draw

60%

AA Iguacu U20 or Cianorte U20

75%

Draw or Cianorte U20

66%

Winning margin

AA Iguacu U20 wins by 2+

15%

Cianorte U20 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

AA Iguacu U20 1+ goals

74%

AA Iguacu U20 2+ goals

38%

AA Iguacu U20 3+ goals

15%

Cianorte U20 1+ goals

77%

Cianorte U20 2+ goals

43%

Cianorte U20 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

AA Iguacu U20 (draw refunded)

46%

Cianorte U20 (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AA Iguacu U20 at home — creates 0.17, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Cianorte U20 away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AA Iguacu U20 attack 0.17 + Cianorte U20 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.33

Cianorte U20 attack 1.75 + AA Iguacu U20 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

AA Iguacu U20 scores more

34%

level

25%

Cianorte U20 scores more

40%

Cianorte U20 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cianorte U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff