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AA Iguacu U20 vs Campo Mourao U20 — Paranaense U20 2024

AA Iguacu U20
AA Iguacu U20
FT
1 – 0
Campo Mourao U20
Campo Mourao U20
5/7/2024Paranaense U20Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 10Estádio Municipal Antiocho Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

AA Iguacu U2065%
×Draw19%
Campo Mourao U2016%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AA Iguacu U20
2.25
Campo Mourao U20
1.00

AA Iguacu U20 creates 125% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

AA Iguacu U20
0.17
Campo Mourao U20
0.83

allows per match

AA Iguacu U20
1.17
Campo Mourao U20
4.33

finishing

AA Iguacu U20+0.00on par
Campo Mourao U20+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AA Iguacu U20 ↓

Campo Mourao U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

AA Iguacu U20 or draw
84%
AA Iguacu U20 or Campo Mourao U20
81%
Draw or Campo Mourao U20
35%

Winning margin

AA Iguacu U20 wins by 2+
42%
Campo Mourao U20 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

AA Iguacu U20 1+ goals
89%
AA Iguacu U20 2+ goals
65%
AA Iguacu U20 3+ goals
39%
Campo Mourao U20 1+ goals
63%
Campo Mourao U20 2+ goals
26%
Campo Mourao U20 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

AA Iguacu U20 (draw refunded)
81%
Campo Mourao U20 (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AA Iguacu U20 at home — creates 0.17, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Campo Mourao U20 away — creates 0.83, concedes 4.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AA Iguacu U20 attack 0.17 + Campo Mourao U20 defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 2.25

Campo Mourao U20 attack 0.83 + AA Iguacu U20 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

AA Iguacu U20 scores more
65%
level
19%
Campo Mourao U20 scores more
16%

AA Iguacu U20 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "AA Iguacu U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paranaense U20: AA Iguacu U20 1–0 Campo Mourao U20

AA Iguacu U20 beat Campo Mourao U20 1-0 in Paranaense U20 on May 7, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Antiocho Pereira in União da Vitória, Paraná.