Ação 1–1 Santa Cruz MT: Result & Stats

Ação

Pens

1 – 1

Santa Cruz MT

5/20/2026

Matogrossense 2 · Quarter-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Ação53%

×Draw25%

Santa Cruz MT22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AçãoExpected goals in this matchSanta Cruz MT

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.93

Ação

1.60

Santa Cruz MT

0.93

Ação creates 72% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

1.86

creates per match

0.56

1.29

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Ação

1.86

Santa Cruz MT

0.56

allows per match

Ação

1.29

Santa Cruz MT

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ação+0.00on par

Santa Cruz MT+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ação ↓

Santa Cruz MT →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ação or draw

78%

Ação or Santa Cruz MT

75%

Draw or Santa Cruz MT

47%

Winning margin

Ação wins by 2+

28%

Santa Cruz MT wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Ação 1+ goals

80%

Ação 2+ goals

47%

Ação 3+ goals

22%

Santa Cruz MT 1+ goals

61%

Santa Cruz MT 2+ goals

24%

Santa Cruz MT 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Ação (draw refunded)

71%

Santa Cruz MT (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ação at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Santa Cruz MT away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ação attack 1.86 + Santa Cruz MT defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.60

Santa Cruz MT attack 0.56 + Ação defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ação scores more

53%

level

25%

Santa Cruz MT scores more

22%

Ação at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ação will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff