A Madrid III 2–1 Trival Valderas: Result & Stats

A Madrid III

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Trival Valderas

10/18/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 7Miniestadio Cerro del Espino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

A Madrid III54%

×Draw24%

Trival Valderas22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

A Madrid IIIExpected goals in this matchTrival Valderas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.02

A Madrid III

1.74

Trival Valderas

1.02

A Madrid III creates 71% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 115 away

2.18

creates per match

0.97

1.06

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

A Madrid III

2.18

Trival Valderas

0.97

allows per match

A Madrid III

1.06

Trival Valderas

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

A Madrid III+0.00on par

Trival Valderas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

A Madrid III ↓

Trival Valderas →

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

A Madrid III or draw

78%

A Madrid III or Trival Valderas

76%

Draw or Trival Valderas

46%

Winning margin

A Madrid III wins by 2+

30%

Trival Valderas wins by 2+

Team goals

A Madrid III 1+ goals

82%

A Madrid III 2+ goals

52%

A Madrid III 3+ goals

25%

Trival Valderas 1+ goals

64%

Trival Valderas 2+ goals

27%

Trival Valderas 3+ goals

Draw no bet

A Madrid III (draw refunded)

71%

Trival Valderas (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

A Madrid III at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Trival Valderas away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.30 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

A Madrid III attack 2.18 + Trival Valderas defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.74

Trival Valderas attack 0.97 + A Madrid III defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

A Madrid III scores more

54%

level

24%

Trival Valderas scores more

22%

A Madrid III at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "A Madrid III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: A Madrid III vs Trival Valderas

A Madrid III beat Trival Valderas 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on October 18, 2025.

The match was played at Miniestadio Cerro del Espino in Majadahonda.

A Madrid III vs Trival Valderas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: A Madrid III vs Trival Valderas