A. Italiano vs Universidad de Concepcion — Primera División 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 44+ matches
A. Italiano49%
Universidad de Concepcion27%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
A. Italiano creates 43% more chances
Season form · 113 home / 44 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over53
- Under47
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes56
- No44
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
A. Italiano ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
A. Italiano at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.20 · 113 matches
Universidad de Concepcion away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.73 · 44 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
A. Italiano attack 1.59 + Universidad de Concepcion defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.66
Universidad de Concepcion attack 1.11 + A. Italiano defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.16
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
A. Italiano at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "A. Italiano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Coquimbo Unido
U. Catolica
Colo Colo
Universidad de Chile
O'Higgins
Huachipato
Palestino
Deportes Limache
NublenseA. Italiano
Cobresal
Everton de Vina
D. La Serena
Union La CaleraUniversidad de Concepcion
Deportes Iquique
Concepción
Union EspanolaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
A. Italiano host Universidad de Concepcion on Sunday, 29 July 2018 at 00:00. The match is part of the Primera División 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: A. Italiano vs Universidad de Concepcion
A. Italiano beat Universidad de Concepcion 4-1 in Primera División on July 29, 2018.
Goals: I. Geraldino (19'), Sergio Santos (23', 53'), H. Droguett (57'), G. Pacheco (72' o.g.).
Universidad de Concepcion controlled possession (58%) and registered 17 shots to 12.
The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal de La Florida in La Florida.