A. Italiano 0–2 Olimpia: Result & Stats

A. Italiano

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Olimpia

J. F. Alfaro 35'

R. Lezcano 23'

4/9/2026

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 1Estadio Bicentenario de La Florida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

A. Italiano45%

×Draw27%

Olimpia28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

A. ItalianoExpected goals in this matchOlimpia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.00

A. Italiano

1.35

Olimpia

1.00

A. Italiano creates 35% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

1.50

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

A. Italiano

1.50

Olimpia

1.00

allows per match

A. Italiano

1.00

Olimpia

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

A. Italiano+0.00on par

Olimpia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

A. Italiano ↓

Olimpia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

A. Italiano or draw

72%

A. Italiano or Olimpia

73%

Draw or Olimpia

55%

Winning margin

A. Italiano wins by 2+

21%

Olimpia wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

A. Italiano 1+ goals

74%

A. Italiano 2+ goals

39%

A. Italiano 3+ goals

15%

Olimpia 1+ goals

63%

Olimpia 2+ goals

26%

Olimpia 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

A. Italiano (draw refunded)

62%

Olimpia (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

A. Italiano at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Olimpia away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

A. Italiano attack 1.50 + Olimpia defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.35

Olimpia attack 1.00 + A. Italiano defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

A. Italiano scores more

45%

level

27%

Olimpia scores more

28%

A. Italiano at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "A. Italiano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

G. Olveira

Olimpia · G

7.9

Match Events

22'

Romeo Benítez

23'

R. Lezcano↳ R. Benitez

35'

J. F. Alfaro↳ R. Benitez

41'

Enzo Ferrario

45+2'

Bryan Bentaberry

61'

R. Sanchez← A. F. Franco Zayas

62'

M. Fuentes← M. Collao

62'

R. Caceres← F. Cardozo

62'

I. Leguizamon← R. Lezcano

75'

F. Loyola← N. Aedo

75'

J. Vera← B. Bentaberry

77'

E. Delmas← R. Benitez

80'

D. Coelho← F. Troyansky

80'

R. Cabral← G. Chiaverano

80'

P. Guajardo← R. Rebolledo

82'

Favian Loyola

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

A.Olimpia

Overview

58%Possession42%

23Total Shots8

1.55Expected Goals (xG)1.50

8Corners4

6Fouls8

Shots

23Total Shots8

4On Target4

14Off Target4

5Blocked0

14Inside Box8

9Outside Box0

Passing

58%Possession42%

418Total Passes316

333Accurate Passes227

80%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

0.28Goals Prevented0.28

Discipline

6Fouls8

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: A. Italiano 0–2 Olimpia

Olimpia beat A. Italiano 2-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on April 9, 2026.

Goals: R. Lezcano (23'), J. F. Alfaro (35').

A. Italiano controlled possession (58%) and registered 23 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario de La Florida in Santiago de Chile.

A. Italiano vs Olimpia — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: A. Italiano 0–2 Olimpia