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A'Ali vs Muharraq — Premier League 2019

A'Ali
A'Ali
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Muharraq
Muharraq
2 Mohamed Al Hardan 90+22' (pen)
Elliot Simões 51'
5/26/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22Sheikh Ali bin Mohammed Al Khalifa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

A'Ali23%
×Draw26%
Muharraq51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

A'Ali
0.91
Muharraq
1.52

Muharraq creates 67% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 70 away

creates per match

A'Ali
0.92
Muharraq
1.67

allows per match

A'Ali
1.36
Muharraq
0.90

finishing

A'Ali+0.00on par
Muharraq+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

A'Ali ↓

Muharraq →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

A'Ali or draw
49%
A'Ali or Muharraq
74%
Draw or Muharraq
77%

Winning margin

A'Ali wins by 2+
8%
Muharraq wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

A'Ali 1+ goals
60%
A'Ali 2+ goals
23%
A'Ali 3+ goals
6%
Muharraq 1+ goals
78%
Muharraq 2+ goals
45%
Muharraq 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

A'Ali (draw refunded)
31%
Muharraq (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

A'Ali at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.36 · 25 matches

Muharraq away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.90 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

A'Ali attack 0.92 + Muharraq defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.91

Muharraq attack 1.67 + A'Ali defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

A'Ali scores more
23%
level
26%
Muharraq scores more
51%

Muharraq at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Muharraq will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

51'
Elliot Simões
90+22'
2 Mohamed Al HardanPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

A'Ali 0 – 2 Muharraq

Muharraq beat A'Ali 2-0 in Premier League on May 26, 2025.

Goals: Elliot Simões (51'), 2 Mohamed Al Hardan (90+22' pen).

The match was played at Sheikh Ali bin Mohammed Al Khalifa Stadium in Muharraq.