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9 de Octubre vs Tecnico Universitario — Liga Pro 2026

9 de Octubre
9 de Octubre
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tecnico Universitario
Tecnico Universitario
J. Cazares 71'
R. Jaramillo 18'
7/9/2022Liga ProLiga Pro · 2nd Round - 1Estadio Los Chirijos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

9 de Octubre45%
×Draw27%
Tecnico Universitario28%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

9 de Octubre
1.35
Tecnico Universitario
1.00

9 de Octubre creates 35% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 128 away

creates per match

9 de Octubre
1.30
Tecnico Universitario
0.87

allows per match

9 de Octubre
1.13
Tecnico Universitario
1.41

finishing

9 de Octubre+0.00on par
Tecnico Universitario+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

9 de Octubre ↓

Tecnico Universitario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

9 de Octubre or draw
72%
9 de Octubre or Tecnico Universitario
73%
Draw or Tecnico Universitario
55%

Winning margin

9 de Octubre wins by 2+
21%
Tecnico Universitario wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

9 de Octubre 1+ goals
74%
9 de Octubre 2+ goals
39%
9 de Octubre 3+ goals
15%
Tecnico Universitario 1+ goals
63%
Tecnico Universitario 2+ goals
26%
Tecnico Universitario 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

9 de Octubre (draw refunded)
62%
Tecnico Universitario (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

9 de Octubre at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

Tecnico Universitario away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.41 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

9 de Octubre attack 1.30 + Tecnico Universitario defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.35

Tecnico Universitario attack 0.87 + 9 de Octubre defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

9 de Octubre scores more
45%
level
27%
Tecnico Universitario scores more
28%

9 de Octubre at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "9 de Octubre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
R. Jaramillo
29'
J. Montero← J. Medina
46'
J. Cazares← J. Vergés
53'
E. Rodríguez← J. Jiménez
61'
Dennis Quintero
65'
Alex Carrera
66'
J. Blanco← B. Palacios
71'
J. Cazares↳ J. Montero
79'
H. Chávez← L. Estupiñán
80'
C. Tutalchá← M. Medranda
82'
K. Arroyo← G. Cortéz
82'
J. Paredes← C. Garcés
84'
Joao Paredes
90+2'
F. Caicedo← R. Jaramillo

Possession

48%9

Shots

89

Statistics

9Tecnico
Overview
48%Possession52%
8Total Shots3
6Corners7
5Fouls7
Shots
8Total Shots3
3On Target1
5Off Target2
Passing
48%Possession52%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
5Fouls7
2Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
0Offsides3

Liga Pro: 9 de Octubre 2–0 Tecnico Universitario

9 de Octubre beat Tecnico Universitario 2-0 in Liga Pro on July 9, 2022.

Goals: R. Jaramillo (18'), J. Cazares (71').

Tecnico Universitario controlled possession (52%) and registered 3 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Los Chirijos in Milagro.