9 de Octubre 1–0 Independiente del Valle

9 de Octubre

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Independiente del Valle

D. Luna 90+3' (pen)

10/2/2021

Liga Pro · 2nd Round - 9Estadio Modelo Alberto Spencer Herrera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

9 de Octubre34%

×Draw27%

Independiente del Valle39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

9 de OctubreExpected goals in this matchIndependiente del Valle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.34

9 de Octubre

1.23

Independiente del Valle

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 133 away

1.30

creates per match

1.56

1.13

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

9 de Octubre

1.30

Independiente del Valle

1.56

allows per match

9 de Octubre

1.13

Independiente del Valle

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

9 de Octubre+0.00on par

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

9 de Octubre ↓

Independiente del Valle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

9 de Octubre or draw

61%

9 de Octubre or Independiente del Valle

73%

Draw or Independiente del Valle

66%

Winning margin

9 de Octubre wins by 2+

15%

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

9 de Octubre 1+ goals

71%

9 de Octubre 2+ goals

35%

9 de Octubre 3+ goals

13%

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

74%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

39%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

9 de Octubre (draw refunded)

46%

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

9 de Octubre at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.17 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

9 de Octubre attack 1.30 + Independiente del Valle defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.23

Independiente del Valle attack 1.56 + 9 de Octubre defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

9 de Octubre scores more

34%

level

27%

Independiente del Valle scores more

39%

Independiente del Valle at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

18'

40'

67'

67'

67'

70'

74'

A. Landázuri← J. Chávez

83'

83'

90+5'

90+4'

90+5'

90'

90+3'

D. LunaPenalty

Possession

Shots

Statistics

9Independiente

Overview

46%Possession54%

7Total Shots10

6Corners3

9Fouls14

Shots

7Total Shots10

4On Target6

3Off Target4

Passing

46%Possession54%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls14

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards1

4Offsides2

Match Recap: 9 de Octubre vs Independiente del Valle

9 de Octubre beat Independiente del Valle 1-0 in Liga Pro on October 2, 2021.

Goals: D. Luna (90+3' pen).

Independiente del Valle controlled possession (54%) and registered 10 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Modelo Alberto Spencer Herrera in Guayaquil.

9 de Octubre vs Independiente del Valle — Liga Pro 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Match Recap: 9 de Octubre vs Independiente del Valle