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9 de Octubre vs Emelec — Liga Pro 2026

9 de Octubre
9 de Octubre
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Emelec
Emelec
J. Fajardo 73'
D. Luna 34' (pen)
J. Rojas 90+5', 81'
8/22/2021Liga ProLiga Pro · 2nd Round - 5Estadio Modelo Alberto Spencer Herrera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

9 de Octubre41%
×Draw27%
Emelec32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

9 de Octubre
1.33
Emelec
1.15

9 de Octubre creates 16% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 131 away

creates per match

9 de Octubre
1.30
Emelec
1.18

allows per match

9 de Octubre
1.13
Emelec
1.37

finishing

9 de Octubre+0.00on par
Emelec+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

9 de Octubre ↓

Emelec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

9 de Octubre or draw
68%
9 de Octubre or Emelec
73%
Draw or Emelec
59%

Winning margin

9 de Octubre wins by 2+
19%
Emelec wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

9 de Octubre 1+ goals
74%
9 de Octubre 2+ goals
38%
9 de Octubre 3+ goals
15%
Emelec 1+ goals
68%
Emelec 2+ goals
32%
Emelec 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

9 de Octubre (draw refunded)
56%
Emelec (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

9 de Octubre at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

Emelec away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.37 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

9 de Octubre attack 1.30 + Emelec defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.33

Emelec attack 1.18 + 9 de Octubre defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

9 de Octubre scores more
41%
level
27%
Emelec scores more
32%

9 de Octubre at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "9 de Octubre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'
A. Leguizamon
32'
L. Sosa
34'
D. LunaPenalty
42'
T. Valencia
45'
A. Leguizamon
45'
A. Leguizamon
46'
M. Mejía← A. Cabeza
60'
M. Lucas
63'
R. Fernández← T. Valencia
63'
M. Da Luz← J. Cortéz
72'
J. Rojas← B. Carabalí
73'
J. Fajardo↳ R. Fernández
78'
K. Becerra← M. Lucas
79'
A. Bangoura← J. Caicedo
81'
J. Rojas↳ J. Cevallos
87'
J. Pinos
87'
G. Mina← O. Quiñónez
87'
É. Cetré← J. Cazares
90+5'
J. Rojas

Possession

45%9

Shots

69

Statistics

9Emelec
Overview
45%Possession55%
6Total Shots6
1Corners5
20Fouls14
Shots
6Total Shots6
5On Target4
1Off Target2
Passing
45%Possession55%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
20Fouls14
3Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
3Offsides8

Liga Pro: 9 de Octubre 2–2 Emelec

9 de Octubre and Emelec drew 2-2 in Liga Pro on August 22, 2021.

Goals: D. Luna (34' pen), J. Fajardo (73'), J. Rojas (81', 90+5').

Emelec controlled possession (55%) and registered 6 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio Modelo Alberto Spencer Herrera in Guayaquil.