9 de Julio Rafaela 1–1 Defensores de Belgrano VR

9 de Julio Rafaela

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Defensores de Belgrano VR

M. Ibanez 81'

L. Perez 18'

3/16/2025

Torneo Federal A · Group 3 - 1El Coloso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

9 de Julio Rafaela52%

×Draw26%

Defensores de Belgrano VR22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

9 de Julio RafaelaExpected goals in this matchDefensores de Belgrano VR

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

0.87

9 de Julio Rafaela

1.49

Defensores de Belgrano VR

0.87

9 de Julio Rafaela creates 71% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 116 away

1.64

creates per match

0.90

0.84

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

9 de Julio Rafaela

1.64

Defensores de Belgrano VR

0.90

allows per match

9 de Julio Rafaela

0.84

Defensores de Belgrano VR

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

9 de Julio Rafaela+0.00on par

Defensores de Belgrano VR+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

9 de Julio Rafaela ↓

Defensores de Belgrano VR →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

9 de Julio Rafaela or draw

78%

9 de Julio Rafaela or Defensores de Belgrano VR

74%

Draw or Defensores de Belgrano VR

48%

Winning margin

9 de Julio Rafaela wins by 2+

26%

Defensores de Belgrano VR wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

9 de Julio Rafaela 1+ goals

77%

9 de Julio Rafaela 2+ goals

44%

9 de Julio Rafaela 3+ goals

19%

Defensores de Belgrano VR 1+ goals

58%

Defensores de Belgrano VR 2+ goals

22%

Defensores de Belgrano VR 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

9 de Julio Rafaela (draw refunded)

70%

Defensores de Belgrano VR (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

9 de Julio Rafaela at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.84 · 55 matches

Defensores de Belgrano VR away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.34 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

9 de Julio Rafaela attack 1.64 + Defensores de Belgrano VR defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.49

Defensores de Belgrano VR attack 0.90 + 9 de Julio Rafaela defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

9 de Julio Rafaela scores more

52%

level

26%

Defensores de Belgrano VR scores more

22%

9 de Julio Rafaela at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "9 de Julio Rafaela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

23'

48'

49'

52'

52'

54'

55'

J. Cartechini← L. Principiano

55'

A. Perini← A. Rodriguez

67'

M. Meynier← M. Martinez

75'

L. Quiroz← T. Macies

75'

N. Del Sole← M. Sterren

75'

L. Jofre← J. Bertacin

75'

F. Olego← L. Perez

81'

M. Ibanez

83'

L. Hertel

86'

R. Abondetto← A. Grabenvarter

9

Defensores

1

4

2

8

6

3

5

10

▼

Principia

11

⚽

▼

Perez

7

▼

Bertacin

9

▼

Rodriguez

1

Fragueda

4

▼

2

6

3

11

5

▼

Macies

8

▼

Grabenvar

10

Peralta

7

▼

Sterren

9

⚽

Ibanez

Manager: M. Varela

67'▲M. Meynier←▼M. Martinez

75'▲L. Quiroz←▼T. Macies

75'▲N. Del Sole←▼M. Sterren

86'▲R. Abondetto←▼A. Grabenvarter

9 de Julio Rafaela substitutes

12Trejo13Almada14Aversa15Quiroz16Abondetto17Sole18Meynier

Manager: S. Iuvalé

55'▲J. Cartechini←▼L. Principiano

55'▲A. Perini←▼A. Rodriguez

75'▲L. Jofre←▼J. Bertacin

75'▲F. Olego←▼L. Perez

Defensores de Belgrano VR substitutes

12Sablevich13Tomino14Pezzani15Cartechini16Jofre17Perini18Olego

Match Recap: 9 de Julio Rafaela vs Defensores de Belgrano VR

9 de Julio Rafaela and Defensores de Belgrano VR drew 1-1 in Torneo Federal A on March 16, 2025.

Goals: L. Perez (18'), M. Ibanez (81').

The match was played at El Coloso in Rafaela.

9 de Julio Rafaela vs Defensores de Belgrano VR — Torneo Federal A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: 9 de Julio Rafaela vs Defensores de Belgrano VR