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4 de Julho vs Salgueiro — Copa do Nordeste 2020

4 de Julho
4 de Julho
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Salgueiro
Salgueiro
3/7/2021Copa do NordesteCopa do Nordeste · Group Stage - 2Estádio Governador Alberto Tavares Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

4 de Julho45%
×Draw29%
Salgueiro26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4 de Julho
1.25
Salgueiro
0.88

4 de Julho creates 42% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

4 de Julho
0.75
Salgueiro
0.50

allows per match

4 de Julho
1.25
Salgueiro
1.75

finishing

4 de Julho+0.00on par
Salgueiro+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

4 de Julho ↓

Salgueiro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

4 de Julho or draw
74%
4 de Julho or Salgueiro
71%
Draw or Salgueiro
55%

Winning margin

4 de Julho wins by 2+
20%
Salgueiro wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

4 de Julho 1+ goals
71%
4 de Julho 2+ goals
36%
4 de Julho 3+ goals
13%
Salgueiro 1+ goals
59%
Salgueiro 2+ goals
22%
Salgueiro 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

4 de Julho (draw refunded)
63%
Salgueiro (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

4 de Julho at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Salgueiro away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

4 de Julho attack 0.75 + Salgueiro defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.25

Salgueiro attack 0.50 + 4 de Julho defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

4 de Julho scores more
45%
level
29%
Salgueiro scores more
26%

4 de Julho at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "4 de Julho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: 4 de Julho vs Salgueiro

4 de Julho beat Salgueiro 1-0 in Copa do Nordeste on March 7, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Governador Alberto Tavares Silva in Teresina, Piauí.