4 de Julho 3–0 Peñarol: Result & Stats | Serie D

4 de Julho

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Peñarol

9/18/2021

Serie D · Round of 32Estádio Municipal de Ytacoatiara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

4 de Julho44%

×Draw26%

Peñarol30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

4 de JulhoExpected goals in this matchPeñarol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.15

4 de Julho

1.46

Peñarol

1.15

4 de Julho creates 27% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 8 away

1.42

creates per match

1.25

1.05

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

4 de Julho

1.42

Peñarol

1.25

allows per match

4 de Julho

1.05

Peñarol

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

4 de Julho+0.00on par

Peñarol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

4 de Julho ↓

Peñarol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

4 de Julho or draw

70%

4 de Julho or Peñarol

74%

Draw or Peñarol

56%

Winning margin

4 de Julho wins by 2+

22%

Peñarol wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

4 de Julho 1+ goals

77%

4 de Julho 2+ goals

43%

4 de Julho 3+ goals

18%

Peñarol 1+ goals

68%

Peñarol 2+ goals

32%

Peñarol 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

4 de Julho (draw refunded)

60%

Peñarol (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

4 de Julho at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Peñarol away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

4 de Julho attack 1.42 + Peñarol defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.46

Peñarol attack 1.25 + 4 de Julho defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

4 de Julho scores more

44%

level

26%

Peñarol scores more

30%

4 de Julho at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "4 de Julho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff