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4 de Julho vs Palmas — Serie D 2018

4 de Julho
4 de Julho
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Palmas
Palmas
8/14/2021Serie DSerie D · Round 11Estádio Municipal de Ytacoatiara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

4 de Julho56%
×Draw23%
Palmas22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4 de Julho
1.85
Palmas
1.06

4 de Julho creates 75% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 17 away

creates per match

4 de Julho
1.42
Palmas
1.06

allows per match

4 de Julho
1.05
Palmas
2.29

finishing

4 de Julho+0.00on par
Palmas+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

4 de Julho ↓

Palmas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

4 de Julho or draw
78%
4 de Julho or Palmas
77%
Draw or Palmas
44%

Winning margin

4 de Julho wins by 2+
32%
Palmas wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

4 de Julho 1+ goals
84%
4 de Julho 2+ goals
55%
4 de Julho 3+ goals
28%
Palmas 1+ goals
65%
Palmas 2+ goals
29%
Palmas 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

4 de Julho (draw refunded)
72%
Palmas (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

4 de Julho at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Palmas away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

4 de Julho attack 1.42 + Palmas defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.85

Palmas attack 1.06 + 4 de Julho defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

4 de Julho scores more
56%
level
23%
Palmas scores more
22%

4 de Julho at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "4 de Julho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: 4 de Julho vs Palmas

Palmas beat 4 de Julho 2-1 in Serie D on August 14, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Ytacoatiara in Piripiri, Piauí.