Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

4 de Julho vs Fortaleza EC — Copa do Nordeste 2020

4 de Julho
4 de Julho
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Fortaleza EC
Fortaleza EC
3/27/2021Copa do NordesteCopa do Nordeste · Group Stage - 6Estádio Governador Alberto Tavares Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

4 de Julho26%
×Draw29%
Fortaleza EC46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4 de Julho
0.89
Fortaleza EC
1.29

Fortaleza EC creates 45% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 33 away

creates per match

4 de Julho
0.75
Fortaleza EC
1.33

allows per match

4 de Julho
1.25
Fortaleza EC
1.03

finishing

4 de Julho+0.00on par
Fortaleza EC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

4 de Julho ↓

Fortaleza EC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–115%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

4 de Julho or draw
54%
4 de Julho or Fortaleza EC
71%
Draw or Fortaleza EC
74%

Winning margin

4 de Julho wins by 2+
9%
Fortaleza EC wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

4 de Julho 1+ goals
59%
4 de Julho 2+ goals
22%
4 de Julho 3+ goals
6%
Fortaleza EC 1+ goals
72%
Fortaleza EC 2+ goals
37%
Fortaleza EC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

4 de Julho (draw refunded)
36%
Fortaleza EC (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

4 de Julho at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Fortaleza EC away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.03 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

4 de Julho attack 0.75 + Fortaleza EC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.89

Fortaleza EC attack 1.33 + 4 de Julho defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

4 de Julho scores more
26%
level
29%
Fortaleza EC scores more
46%

Fortaleza EC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Fortaleza EC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa do Nordeste: 4 de Julho 1–2 Fortaleza EC

Fortaleza EC beat 4 de Julho 2-1 in Copa do Nordeste on March 27, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Governador Alberto Tavares Silva in Teresina, Piauí.