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4 de Julho vs Fluminense PI — Serie D 2018

4 de Julho
4 de Julho
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Fluminense PI
Fluminense PI
6/18/2022Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Municipal de Ytacoatiara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

4 de Julho47%
×Draw27%
Fluminense PI26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4 de Julho
1.43
Fluminense PI
1.00

4 de Julho creates 43% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 27 away

creates per match

4 de Julho
1.42
Fluminense PI
0.96

allows per match

4 de Julho
1.05
Fluminense PI
1.44

finishing

4 de Julho+0.00on par
Fluminense PI+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

4 de Julho ↓

Fluminense PI →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

4 de Julho or draw
74%
4 de Julho or Fluminense PI
73%
Draw or Fluminense PI
53%

Winning margin

4 de Julho wins by 2+
23%
Fluminense PI wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

4 de Julho 1+ goals
76%
4 de Julho 2+ goals
42%
4 de Julho 3+ goals
17%
Fluminense PI 1+ goals
63%
Fluminense PI 2+ goals
26%
Fluminense PI 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

4 de Julho (draw refunded)
64%
Fluminense PI (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

4 de Julho at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Fluminense PI away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.44 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

4 de Julho attack 1.42 + Fluminense PI defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.43

Fluminense PI attack 0.96 + 4 de Julho defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

4 de Julho scores more
47%
level
27%
Fluminense PI scores more
26%

4 de Julho at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "4 de Julho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: 4 de Julho vs Fluminense PI

Fluminense PI beat 4 de Julho 2-1 in Serie D on June 18, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Ytacoatiara in Piripiri, Piauí.