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4 de Julho vs Castanhal — Serie D 2018

4 de Julho
4 de Julho
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Castanhal
Castanhal
5/8/2022Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Municipal de Ytacoatiara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

4 de Julho37%
×Draw26%
Castanhal36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4 de Julho
1.31
Castanhal
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 15 away

creates per match

4 de Julho
1.42
Castanhal
1.53

allows per match

4 de Julho
1.05
Castanhal
1.20

finishing

4 de Julho+0.00on par
Castanhal+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

4 de Julho ↓

Castanhal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

4 de Julho or draw
64%
4 de Julho or Castanhal
74%
Draw or Castanhal
63%

Winning margin

4 de Julho wins by 2+
17%
Castanhal wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

4 de Julho 1+ goals
73%
4 de Julho 2+ goals
38%
4 de Julho 3+ goals
14%
Castanhal 1+ goals
72%
Castanhal 2+ goals
37%
Castanhal 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

4 de Julho (draw refunded)
51%
Castanhal (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

4 de Julho at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Castanhal away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

4 de Julho attack 1.42 + Castanhal defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.31

Castanhal attack 1.53 + 4 de Julho defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

4 de Julho scores more
37%
level
26%
Castanhal scores more
36%

4 de Julho at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "4 de Julho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: 4 de Julho vs Castanhal

Castanhal beat 4 de Julho 3-0 in Serie D on May 8, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Ytacoatiara in Piripiri, Piauí.