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3K vs Dimba Patriots — Super League 2018

3K
3K
CANC
00:00
Dimba Patriots
Dimba Patriots
3/15/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

3K53%
×Draw28%
Dimba Patriots19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3K
1.39
Dimba Patriots
0.70

3K creates 99% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 27 away

creates per match

3K
1.59
Dimba Patriots
0.67

allows per match

3K
0.73
Dimba Patriots
1.19

finishing

3K+0.00on par
Dimba Patriots+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

3K ↓

Dimba Patriots →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

3K or draw
81%
3K or Dimba Patriots
72%
Draw or Dimba Patriots
47%

Winning margin

3K wins by 2+
26%
Dimba Patriots wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

3K 1+ goals
75%
3K 2+ goals
40%
3K 3+ goals
16%
Dimba Patriots 1+ goals
50%
Dimba Patriots 2+ goals
16%
Dimba Patriots 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

3K (draw refunded)
74%
Dimba Patriots (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

3K at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.73 · 37 matches

Dimba Patriots away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

3K attack 1.59 + Dimba Patriots defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.39

Dimba Patriots attack 0.67 + 3K defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

3K scores more
53%
level
28%
Dimba Patriots scores more
19%

3K at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "3K will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: 3K host Dimba Patriots

March 15, 2025: 3K take on Dimba Patriots in Super League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.