3B da Amazônia W 2–1 Sport Recife W: Result & Stats

3B da Amazônia W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sport Recife W

4/30/2025

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Ismael Benigno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

3B da Amazônia W51%

×Draw22%

Sport Recife W27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

3B da Amazônia WExpected goals in this matchSport Recife W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.32

3B da Amazônia W

1.91

Sport Recife W

1.32

3B da Amazônia W creates 45% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 23 away

0.86

creates per match

0.78

1.86

allows per match

2.96

creates per match

3B da Amazônia W

0.86

Sport Recife W

0.78

allows per match

3B da Amazônia W

1.86

Sport Recife W

2.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

3B da Amazônia W+0.00on par

Sport Recife W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

3B da Amazônia W ↓

Sport Recife W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

3B da Amazônia W or draw

73%

3B da Amazônia W or Sport Recife W

78%

Draw or Sport Recife W

49%

Winning margin

3B da Amazônia W wins by 2+

29%

Sport Recife W wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

3B da Amazônia W 1+ goals

85%

3B da Amazônia W 2+ goals

57%

3B da Amazônia W 3+ goals

30%

Sport Recife W 1+ goals

73%

Sport Recife W 2+ goals

38%

Sport Recife W 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

3B da Amazônia W (draw refunded)

66%

Sport Recife W (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

3B da Amazônia W at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Sport Recife W away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.96 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

3B da Amazônia W attack 0.86 + Sport Recife W defence 2.96 → ÷2 → 1.91

Sport Recife W attack 0.78 + 3B da Amazônia W defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

3B da Amazônia W scores more

51%

level

22%

Sport Recife W scores more

27%

3B da Amazônia W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "3B da Amazônia W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff