3B da Amazônia W 2–2 Real Brasília W

3B da Amazônia W

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Real Brasília W

4/27/2025

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Ismael Benigno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

3B da Amazônia W40%

×Draw25%

Real Brasília W34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

3B da Amazônia WExpected goals in this matchReal Brasília W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.34

3B da Amazônia W

1.47

Real Brasília W

1.34

3B da Amazônia W creates 10% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 40 away

0.86

creates per match

0.82

1.86

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

3B da Amazônia W

0.86

Real Brasília W

0.82

allows per match

3B da Amazônia W

1.86

Real Brasília W

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

3B da Amazônia W+0.00on par

Real Brasília W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

3B da Amazônia W ↓

Real Brasília W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

3B da Amazônia W or draw

66%

3B da Amazônia W or Real Brasília W

75%

Draw or Real Brasília W

60%

Winning margin

3B da Amazônia W wins by 2+

19%

Real Brasília W wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

3B da Amazônia W 1+ goals

77%

3B da Amazônia W 2+ goals

43%

3B da Amazônia W 3+ goals

18%

Real Brasília W 1+ goals

74%

Real Brasília W 2+ goals

39%

Real Brasília W 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

3B da Amazônia W (draw refunded)

54%

Real Brasília W (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

3B da Amazônia W at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Real Brasília W away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.08 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

3B da Amazônia W attack 0.86 + Real Brasília W defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.47

Real Brasília W attack 0.82 + 3B da Amazônia W defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

3B da Amazônia W scores more

40%

level

25%

Real Brasília W scores more

34%

3B da Amazônia W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "3B da Amazônia W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: 3B da Amazônia W vs Real Brasília W

3B da Amazônia W and Real Brasília W drew 2-2 in Brasileiro Women on April 27, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Ismael Benigno in Manaus, Amazonas.

3B da Amazônia W vs Real Brasília W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: 3B da Amazônia W vs Real Brasília W