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3B da Amazônia W vs America Mineiro W — Brasileiro Women 2018

3B da Amazônia W
3B da Amazônia W
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
America Mineiro W
America Mineiro W
4/13/2025Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 4Arena da Amazônia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

3B da Amazônia W36%
×Draw24%
America Mineiro W40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3B da Amazônia W
1.45
America Mineiro W
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 22 away

creates per match

3B da Amazônia W
0.86
America Mineiro W
1.23

allows per match

3B da Amazônia W
1.86
America Mineiro W
2.05

finishing

3B da Amazônia W+0.00on par
America Mineiro W+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

3B da Amazônia W ↓

America Mineiro W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

3B da Amazônia W or draw
60%
3B da Amazônia W or America Mineiro W
76%
Draw or America Mineiro W
64%

Winning margin

3B da Amazônia W wins by 2+
17%
America Mineiro W wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

3B da Amazônia W 1+ goals
77%
3B da Amazônia W 2+ goals
42%
3B da Amazônia W 3+ goals
18%
America Mineiro W 1+ goals
79%
America Mineiro W 2+ goals
45%
America Mineiro W 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

3B da Amazônia W (draw refunded)
47%
America Mineiro W (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

3B da Amazônia W at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

America Mineiro W away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

3B da Amazônia W attack 0.86 + America Mineiro W defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.45

America Mineiro W attack 1.23 + 3B da Amazônia W defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

3B da Amazônia W scores more
36%
level
24%
America Mineiro W scores more
40%

America Mineiro W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "America Mineiro W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: 3B da Amazônia W vs America Mineiro W

America Mineiro W beat 3B da Amazônia W 3-0 in Brasileiro Women on April 13, 2025.

The match was played at Arena da Amazônia in Manaus, Amazonas.