3 de Febrero 1–2 Rubio NU: Result & Stats

3 de Febrero

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Rubio NU

4/3/2023

Division Intermedia · Round 1Estadio Antonio Aranda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

3 de Febrero38%

×Draw27%

Rubio NU35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

3 de FebreroExpected goals in this matchRubio NU

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.18

3 de Febrero

1.25

Rubio NU

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 107 away

1.28

creates per match

1.09

1.26

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

3 de Febrero

1.28

Rubio NU

1.09

allows per match

3 de Febrero

1.26

Rubio NU

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

3 de Febrero+0.00on par

Rubio NU+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

3 de Febrero ↓

Rubio NU →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

3 de Febrero or draw

65%

3 de Febrero or Rubio NU

73%

Draw or Rubio NU

62%

Winning margin

3 de Febrero wins by 2+

17%

Rubio NU wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

3 de Febrero 1+ goals

71%

3 de Febrero 2+ goals

36%

3 de Febrero 3+ goals

13%

Rubio NU 1+ goals

69%

Rubio NU 2+ goals

33%

Rubio NU 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

3 de Febrero (draw refunded)

52%

Rubio NU (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

3 de Febrero at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.26 · 78 matches

Rubio NU away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.21 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

3 de Febrero attack 1.28 + Rubio NU defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.25

Rubio NU attack 1.09 + 3 de Febrero defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

3 de Febrero scores more

38%

level

27%

Rubio NU scores more

35%

3 de Febrero at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "3 de Febrero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff