3 de Febrero 1–4 Ri 3 Corrales: Result & Stats

3 de Febrero

FT

1 – 4

Ri 3 Corrales

7/12/2019

Division Intermedia · Round 12Estadio Antonio Aranda (Ciudad del Este)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

3 de Febrero42%

×Draw27%

Ri 3 Corrales31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

3 de FebreroExpected goals in this matchRi 3 Corrales

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.11

3 de Febrero

1.33

Ri 3 Corrales

1.11

3 de Febrero creates 20% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 30 away

1.28

creates per match

0.97

1.26

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

3 de Febrero

1.28

Ri 3 Corrales

0.97

allows per match

3 de Febrero

1.26

Ri 3 Corrales

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

3 de Febrero+0.00on par

Ri 3 Corrales+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

3 de Febrero ↓

Ri 3 Corrales →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

3 de Febrero or draw

69%

3 de Febrero or Ri 3 Corrales

73%

Draw or Ri 3 Corrales

58%

Winning margin

3 de Febrero wins by 2+

19%

Ri 3 Corrales wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

3 de Febrero 1+ goals

74%

3 de Febrero 2+ goals

38%

3 de Febrero 3+ goals

15%

Ri 3 Corrales 1+ goals

67%

Ri 3 Corrales 2+ goals

30%

Ri 3 Corrales 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

3 de Febrero (draw refunded)

57%

Ri 3 Corrales (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

3 de Febrero at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.26 · 78 matches

Ri 3 Corrales away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

3 de Febrero attack 1.28 + Ri 3 Corrales defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.33

Ri 3 Corrales attack 0.97 + 3 de Febrero defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

3 de Febrero scores more

42%

level

27%

Ri 3 Corrales scores more

31%

3 de Febrero at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "3 de Febrero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff