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3 de Febrero vs Deportivo Capiata — Division Intermedia 2018

3 de Febrero
3 de Febrero
PST
22:00
Deportivo Capiata
Deportivo Capiata
7/25/2020Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 19Estadio Antonio Aranda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

3 de Febrero38%
×Draw29%
Deportivo Capiata34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3 de Febrero
1.17
Deportivo Capiata
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 38 away

creates per match

3 de Febrero
1.28
Deportivo Capiata
0.92

allows per match

3 de Febrero
1.26
Deportivo Capiata
1.05

finishing

3 de Febrero+0.00on par
Deportivo Capiata+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

3 de Febrero ↓

Deportivo Capiata →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

3 de Febrero or draw
66%
3 de Febrero or Deportivo Capiata
71%
Draw or Deportivo Capiata
62%

Winning margin

3 de Febrero wins by 2+
16%
Deportivo Capiata wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

3 de Febrero 1+ goals
69%
3 de Febrero 2+ goals
33%
3 de Febrero 3+ goals
11%
Deportivo Capiata 1+ goals
66%
Deportivo Capiata 2+ goals
30%
Deportivo Capiata 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

3 de Febrero (draw refunded)
53%
Deportivo Capiata (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

3 de Febrero at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.26 · 78 matches

Deportivo Capiata away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.05 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

3 de Febrero attack 1.28 + Deportivo Capiata defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.17

Deportivo Capiata attack 0.92 + 3 de Febrero defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

3 de Febrero scores more
38%
level
29%
Deportivo Capiata scores more
34%

3 de Febrero at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "3 de Febrero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: 3 de Febrero host Deportivo Capiata

July 25, 2020: 3 de Febrero take on Deportivo Capiata in Division Intermedia. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

3 de Febrero host Deportivo Capiata at Estadio Antonio Aranda.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.