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3 de Febrero vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo — Division Intermedia 2018

3 de Febrero
3 de Febrero
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
10/5/2024Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 29Estadio Antonio Aranda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

3 de Febrero34%
×Draw28%
Club Sp. San Lorenzo38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3 de Febrero
1.16
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 92 away

creates per match

3 de Febrero
1.28
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
1.20

allows per match

3 de Febrero
1.26
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
1.04

finishing

3 de Febrero+0.00on par
Club Sp. San Lorenzo+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

3 de Febrero ↓

Club Sp. San Lorenzo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

3 de Febrero or draw
62%
3 de Febrero or Club Sp. San Lorenzo
72%
Draw or Club Sp. San Lorenzo
66%

Winning margin

3 de Febrero wins by 2+
14%
Club Sp. San Lorenzo wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

3 de Febrero 1+ goals
69%
3 de Febrero 2+ goals
32%
3 de Febrero 3+ goals
11%
Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1+ goals
71%
Club Sp. San Lorenzo 2+ goals
35%
Club Sp. San Lorenzo 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

3 de Febrero (draw refunded)
48%
Club Sp. San Lorenzo (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

3 de Febrero at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.26 · 78 matches

Club Sp. San Lorenzo away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.04 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

3 de Febrero attack 1.28 + Club Sp. San Lorenzo defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.16

Club Sp. San Lorenzo attack 1.20 + 3 de Febrero defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

3 de Febrero scores more
34%
level
28%
Club Sp. San Lorenzo scores more
38%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Club Sp. San Lorenzo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: 3 de Febrero vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo

Club Sp. San Lorenzo beat 3 de Febrero 3-2 in Division Intermedia on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Aranda in Ciudad del Este.