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2Drots vs Torpedo Vladimir — Cup 2019

2Drots
2Drots
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Torpedo Vladimir
Torpedo Vladimir
8/6/2025CupCup · Regions Path - 1st RoundStadion Moskvich

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

2Drots46%
×Draw27%
Torpedo Vladimir27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2Drots
1.40
Torpedo Vladimir
1.00

2Drots creates 40% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

2Drots
1.40
Torpedo Vladimir
1.60

allows per match

2Drots
0.40
Torpedo Vladimir
1.40

finishing

2Drots+0.00on par
Torpedo Vladimir+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

2Drots ↓

Torpedo Vladimir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

2Drots or draw
73%
2Drots or Torpedo Vladimir
73%
Draw or Torpedo Vladimir
54%

Winning margin

2Drots wins by 2+
22%
Torpedo Vladimir wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

2Drots 1+ goals
75%
2Drots 2+ goals
41%
2Drots 3+ goals
17%
Torpedo Vladimir 1+ goals
63%
Torpedo Vladimir 2+ goals
26%
Torpedo Vladimir 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

2Drots (draw refunded)
63%
Torpedo Vladimir (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

2Drots at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Torpedo Vladimir away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

2Drots attack 1.40 + Torpedo Vladimir defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.40

Torpedo Vladimir attack 1.60 + 2Drots defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

2Drots scores more
46%
level
27%
Torpedo Vladimir scores more
27%

2Drots at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "2Drots will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: 2Drots 1–0 Torpedo Vladimir

2Drots beat Torpedo Vladimir 1-0 in Cup on August 6, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Moskvich in Moskva.