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2Drots vs Sakhalin — Cup 2019

2Drots
2Drots
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sakhalin
Sakhalin
8/2/2023CupCup · Regions Path - 1st RoundStadion Moskvich

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

2Drots65%
×Draw24%
Sakhalin10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2Drots
1.57
Sakhalin
0.45

2Drots creates 249% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

2Drots
1.40
Sakhalin
0.50

allows per match

2Drots
0.40
Sakhalin
1.75

finishing

2Drots+0.00on par
Sakhalin+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

2Drots ↓

Sakhalin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

2Drots or draw
90%
2Drots or Sakhalin
76%
Draw or Sakhalin
35%

Winning margin

2Drots wins by 2+
36%
Sakhalin wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

2Drots 1+ goals
79%
2Drots 2+ goals
46%
2Drots 3+ goals
21%
Sakhalin 1+ goals
36%
Sakhalin 2+ goals
8%
Sakhalin 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

2Drots (draw refunded)
86%
Sakhalin (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

2Drots at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Sakhalin away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

2Drots attack 1.40 + Sakhalin defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.57

Sakhalin attack 0.50 + 2Drots defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

2Drots scores more
65%
level
24%
Sakhalin scores more
10%

2Drots at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "2Drots will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: 2Drots 2–0 Sakhalin

2Drots beat Sakhalin 2-0 in Cup on August 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Moskvich in Moskva.