Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

2Drots vs Chertanovo Moscow — Cup 2019

2Drots
2Drots
FT
3 – 0
Chertanovo Moscow
Chertanovo Moscow
8/17/2022CupCup · Regions Path - 1st RoundArena Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

2Drots53%
×Draw27%
Chertanovo Moscow20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2Drots
1.45
Chertanovo Moscow
0.78

2Drots creates 86% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

2Drots
1.40
Chertanovo Moscow
1.17

allows per match

2Drots
0.40
Chertanovo Moscow
1.50

finishing

2Drots+0.00on par
Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

2Drots ↓

Chertanovo Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

2Drots or draw
80%
2Drots or Chertanovo Moscow
73%
Draw or Chertanovo Moscow
47%

Winning margin

2Drots wins by 2+
27%
Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

2Drots 1+ goals
77%
2Drots 2+ goals
42%
2Drots 3+ goals
18%
Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals
54%
Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals
18%
Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

2Drots (draw refunded)
72%
Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

2Drots at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Chertanovo Moscow away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

2Drots attack 1.40 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.45

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.17 + 2Drots defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

2Drots scores more
53%
level
27%
Chertanovo Moscow scores more
20%

2Drots at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "2Drots will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: 2Drots 3–0 Chertanovo Moscow

2Drots beat Chertanovo Moscow 3-0 in Cup on August 17, 2022.

The match was played at Arena Khimki in Khimki.