24 Erzincanspor 1–3 Yeni Orduspor: Result & Stats

24 Erzincanspor

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Yeni Orduspor

10/27/2021

Türkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundMustakil Atletizm Pisti Sahası

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

24 Erzincanspor45%

×Draw22%

Yeni Orduspor32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

24 ErzincansporExpected goals in this matchYeni Orduspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.57

24 Erzincanspor

1.89

Yeni Orduspor

1.57

24 Erzincanspor creates 20% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

1.88

creates per match

1.40

1.75

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

24 Erzincanspor

1.88

Yeni Orduspor

1.40

allows per match

24 Erzincanspor

1.75

Yeni Orduspor

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

24 Erzincanspor+0.00on par

Yeni Orduspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

24 Erzincanspor ↓

Yeni Orduspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

24 Erzincanspor or draw

68%

24 Erzincanspor or Yeni Orduspor

78%

Draw or Yeni Orduspor

55%

Winning margin

24 Erzincanspor wins by 2+

25%

Yeni Orduspor wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

24 Erzincanspor 1+ goals

85%

24 Erzincanspor 2+ goals

56%

24 Erzincanspor 3+ goals

29%

Yeni Orduspor 1+ goals

79%

Yeni Orduspor 2+ goals

46%

Yeni Orduspor 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

24 Erzincanspor (draw refunded)

58%

Yeni Orduspor (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

24 Erzincanspor at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Yeni Orduspor away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

24 Erzincanspor attack 1.88 + Yeni Orduspor defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.89

Yeni Orduspor attack 1.40 + 24 Erzincanspor defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

24 Erzincanspor scores more

45%

level

22%

Yeni Orduspor scores more

32%

24 Erzincanspor at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "24 Erzincanspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff