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24 Erzincanspor vs Muş Sport Klübü — Türkiye Kupası 2018

24 Erzincanspor
24 Erzincanspor
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Muş Sport Klübü
Muş Sport Klübü
9/12/2019Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundMustakil Atletizm Pisti Sahası

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

24 Erzincanspor46%
×Draw22%
Muş Sport Klübü32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

24 Erzincanspor
2.01
Muş Sport Klübü
1.66

24 Erzincanspor creates 21% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

24 Erzincanspor
1.88
Muş Sport Klübü
1.57

allows per match

24 Erzincanspor
1.75
Muş Sport Klübü
2.14

finishing

24 Erzincanspor+0.00on par
Muş Sport Klübü+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

24 Erzincanspor ↓

Muş Sport Klübü →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

24 Erzincanspor or draw
68%
24 Erzincanspor or Muş Sport Klübü
78%
Draw or Muş Sport Klübü
54%

Winning margin

24 Erzincanspor wins by 2+
26%
Muş Sport Klübü wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

24 Erzincanspor 1+ goals
87%
24 Erzincanspor 2+ goals
59%
24 Erzincanspor 3+ goals
32%
Muş Sport Klübü 1+ goals
81%
Muş Sport Klübü 2+ goals
49%
Muş Sport Klübü 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

24 Erzincanspor (draw refunded)
59%
Muş Sport Klübü (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

24 Erzincanspor at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Muş Sport Klübü away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

24 Erzincanspor attack 1.88 + Muş Sport Klübü defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.01

Muş Sport Klübü attack 1.57 + 24 Erzincanspor defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

24 Erzincanspor scores more
46%
level
22%
Muş Sport Klübü scores more
32%

24 Erzincanspor at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "24 Erzincanspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: 24 Erzincanspor 3–1 Muş Sport Klübü

24 Erzincanspor beat Muş Sport Klübü 3-1 in Türkiye Kupası on September 12, 2019.

The match was played at Mustakil Atletizm Pisti Sahası in Erzincan.