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24 Erzincanspor vs Kütahyaspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

24 Erzincanspor
24 Erzincanspor
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kütahyaspor
Kütahyaspor
10/19/2022Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd Round13 Şubat Şehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

24 Erzincanspor52%
×Draw23%
Kütahyaspor24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

24 Erzincanspor
1.77
Kütahyaspor
1.13

24 Erzincanspor creates 57% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

24 Erzincanspor
1.88
Kütahyaspor
0.50

allows per match

24 Erzincanspor
1.75
Kütahyaspor
1.67

finishing

24 Erzincanspor+0.00on par
Kütahyaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

24 Erzincanspor ↓

Kütahyaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

24 Erzincanspor or draw
76%
24 Erzincanspor or Kütahyaspor
77%
Draw or Kütahyaspor
48%

Winning margin

24 Erzincanspor wins by 2+
29%
Kütahyaspor wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

24 Erzincanspor 1+ goals
83%
24 Erzincanspor 2+ goals
53%
24 Erzincanspor 3+ goals
26%
Kütahyaspor 1+ goals
68%
Kütahyaspor 2+ goals
31%
Kütahyaspor 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

24 Erzincanspor (draw refunded)
68%
Kütahyaspor (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

24 Erzincanspor at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Kütahyaspor away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

24 Erzincanspor attack 1.88 + Kütahyaspor defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.77

Kütahyaspor attack 0.50 + 24 Erzincanspor defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

24 Erzincanspor scores more
52%
level
23%
Kütahyaspor scores more
24%

24 Erzincanspor at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "24 Erzincanspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: 24 Erzincanspor vs Kütahyaspor

Kütahyaspor beat 24 Erzincanspor 1-0 in Türkiye Kupası on October 19, 2022.

The match was played at 13 Şubat Şehir Stadyumu in Erzincan.