24 Erzincanspor 3–0 Karaköprü Belediyespor

24 Erzincanspor

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Karaköprü Belediyespor

12/4/2024

Türkiye Kupası · 4th Round13 Şubat Şehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

24 Erzincanspor53%

×Draw20%

Karaköprü Belediyespor27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

24 ErzincansporExpected goals in this matchKaraköprü Belediyespor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.24

1.57

24 Erzincanspor

2.24

Karaköprü Belediyespor

1.57

24 Erzincanspor creates 43% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

1.88

creates per match

1.40

1.75

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

24 Erzincanspor

1.88

Karaköprü Belediyespor

1.40

allows per match

24 Erzincanspor

1.75

Karaköprü Belediyespor

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

24 Erzincanspor+0.00on par

Karaköprü Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

24 Erzincanspor ↓

Karaköprü Belediyespor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

24 Erzincanspor or draw

73%

24 Erzincanspor or Karaköprü Belediyespor

80%

Draw or Karaköprü Belediyespor

47%

Winning margin

24 Erzincanspor wins by 2+

32%

Karaköprü Belediyespor wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

24 Erzincanspor 1+ goals

89%

24 Erzincanspor 2+ goals

65%

24 Erzincanspor 3+ goals

38%

Karaköprü Belediyespor 1+ goals

79%

Karaköprü Belediyespor 2+ goals

46%

Karaköprü Belediyespor 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

24 Erzincanspor (draw refunded)

66%

Karaköprü Belediyespor (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

24 Erzincanspor at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Karaköprü Belediyespor away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

24 Erzincanspor attack 1.88 + Karaköprü Belediyespor defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.24

Karaköprü Belediyespor attack 1.40 + 24 Erzincanspor defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

24 Erzincanspor scores more

53%

level

20%

Karaköprü Belediyespor scores more

27%

24 Erzincanspor at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "24 Erzincanspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff