Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

24 Erzincanspor vs Çorum FK — Türkiye Kupası 2018

24 Erzincanspor
24 Erzincanspor
FT
4 – 6
HT: 0 – 1
Çorum FK
Çorum FK
12/19/2024Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 5th Round13 Şubat Şehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

24 Erzincanspor50%
×Draw20%
Çorum FK30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

24 Erzincanspor
2.44
Çorum FK
1.88

24 Erzincanspor creates 30% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

24 Erzincanspor
1.88
Çorum FK
2.00

allows per match

24 Erzincanspor
1.75
Çorum FK
3.00

finishing

24 Erzincanspor+0.00on par
Çorum FK+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

24 Erzincanspor ↓

Çorum FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

24 Erzincanspor or draw
70%
24 Erzincanspor or Çorum FK
80%
Draw or Çorum FK
50%

Winning margin

24 Erzincanspor wins by 2+
31%
Çorum FK wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

24 Erzincanspor 1+ goals
91%
24 Erzincanspor 2+ goals
70%
24 Erzincanspor 3+ goals
43%
Çorum FK 1+ goals
85%
Çorum FK 2+ goals
56%
Çorum FK 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

24 Erzincanspor (draw refunded)
62%
Çorum FK (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

24 Erzincanspor at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Çorum FK away — creates 2.00, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

24 Erzincanspor attack 1.88 + Çorum FK defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.44

Çorum FK attack 2.00 + 24 Erzincanspor defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

24 Erzincanspor scores more
50%
level
20%
Çorum FK scores more
30%

24 Erzincanspor at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "24 Erzincanspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: 24 Erzincanspor 4–6 Çorum FK

Çorum FK beat 24 Erzincanspor 6-4 in Türkiye Kupası on December 19, 2024.

The match was played at 13 Şubat Şehir Stadyumu in Erzincan.