24 Erzincanspor 2–0 Beşiktaş: Result & Stats

24 Erzincanspor

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Beşiktaş

12/18/2019

Türkiye Kupası · 5th Round13 Şubat Şehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

24 Erzincanspor36%

×Draw24%

Beşiktaş40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

24 ErzincansporExpected goals in this matchBeşiktaş

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.54

24 Erzincanspor

1.44

Beşiktaş

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

1.88

creates per match

1.33

1.75

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

24 Erzincanspor

1.88

Beşiktaş

1.33

allows per match

24 Erzincanspor

1.75

Beşiktaş

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

24 Erzincanspor+0.00on par

Beşiktaş+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

24 Erzincanspor ↓

Beşiktaş →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

24 Erzincanspor or draw

60%

24 Erzincanspor or Beşiktaş

76%

Draw or Beşiktaş

64%

Winning margin

24 Erzincanspor wins by 2+

17%

Beşiktaş wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

24 Erzincanspor 1+ goals

76%

24 Erzincanspor 2+ goals

42%

24 Erzincanspor 3+ goals

18%

Beşiktaş 1+ goals

79%

Beşiktaş 2+ goals

45%

Beşiktaş 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

24 Erzincanspor (draw refunded)

47%

Beşiktaş (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

24 Erzincanspor at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Beşiktaş away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

24 Erzincanspor attack 1.88 + Beşiktaş defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.44

Beşiktaş attack 1.33 + 24 Erzincanspor defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

24 Erzincanspor scores more

36%

level

24%

Beşiktaş scores more

40%

Beşiktaş at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Beşiktaş will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff