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24 de Setiembre vs Sportivo Carapeguá — Division Intermedia 2018

24 de Setiembre
24 de Setiembre
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Sportivo Carapeguá
Sportivo Carapeguá
5/13/2023Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 7Estadio Próculo Cortázar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

24 de Setiembre40%
×Draw25%
Sportivo Carapeguá35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

24 de Setiembre
1.49
Sportivo Carapeguá
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 53 away

creates per match

24 de Setiembre
1.53
Sportivo Carapeguá
1.11

allows per match

24 de Setiembre
1.67
Sportivo Carapeguá
1.45

finishing

24 de Setiembre+0.00on par
Sportivo Carapeguá+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

24 de Setiembre ↓

Sportivo Carapeguá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

24 de Setiembre or draw
65%
24 de Setiembre or Sportivo Carapeguá
75%
Draw or Sportivo Carapeguá
60%

Winning margin

24 de Setiembre wins by 2+
19%
Sportivo Carapeguá wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

24 de Setiembre 1+ goals
77%
24 de Setiembre 2+ goals
44%
24 de Setiembre 3+ goals
19%
Sportivo Carapeguá 1+ goals
75%
Sportivo Carapeguá 2+ goals
40%
Sportivo Carapeguá 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

24 de Setiembre (draw refunded)
53%
Sportivo Carapeguá (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

24 de Setiembre at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Sportivo Carapeguá away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.45 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

24 de Setiembre attack 1.53 + Sportivo Carapeguá defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.49

Sportivo Carapeguá attack 1.11 + 24 de Setiembre defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

24 de Setiembre scores more
40%
level
25%
Sportivo Carapeguá scores more
35%

24 de Setiembre at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "24 de Setiembre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: 24 de Setiembre 3–3 Sportivo Carapeguá

24 de Setiembre and Sportivo Carapeguá drew 3-3 in Division Intermedia on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Próculo Cortázar in Areguá.