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24 de Setiembre vs SOL DE America — Division Intermedia 2018

24 de Setiembre
24 de Setiembre
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
SOL DE America
SOL DE America
7/9/2023Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 16Estadio Próculo Cortázar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

24 de Setiembre35%
×Draw25%
SOL DE America41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

24 de Setiembre
1.38
SOL DE America
1.52

SOL DE America creates 10% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 36 away

creates per match

24 de Setiembre
1.53
SOL DE America
1.36

allows per match

24 de Setiembre
1.67
SOL DE America
1.22

finishing

24 de Setiembre+0.00on par
SOL DE America+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

24 de Setiembre ↓

SOL DE America →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

24 de Setiembre or draw
59%
24 de Setiembre or SOL DE America
75%
Draw or SOL DE America
65%

Winning margin

24 de Setiembre wins by 2+
16%
SOL DE America wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

24 de Setiembre 1+ goals
75%
24 de Setiembre 2+ goals
40%
24 de Setiembre 3+ goals
16%
SOL DE America 1+ goals
78%
SOL DE America 2+ goals
45%
SOL DE America 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

24 de Setiembre (draw refunded)
46%
SOL DE America (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

24 de Setiembre at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

SOL DE America away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.22 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

24 de Setiembre attack 1.53 + SOL DE America defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.38

SOL DE America attack 1.36 + 24 de Setiembre defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

24 de Setiembre scores more
35%
level
25%
SOL DE America scores more
41%

SOL DE America at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "SOL DE America will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: 24 de Setiembre 0–2 SOL DE America

SOL DE America beat 24 de Setiembre 2-0 in Division Intermedia on July 9, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Próculo Cortázar in Areguá.