24 de Setiembre 1–1 Club Sp. San Lorenzo

24 de Setiembre

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

6/18/2023

Division Intermedia · Round 13Estadio Próculo Cortázar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

24 de Setiembre34%

×Draw26%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

24 de SetiembreExpected goals in this matchClub Sp. San Lorenzo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.44

24 de Setiembre

1.29

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

1.44

Club Sp. San Lorenzo creates 12% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 92 away

1.53

creates per match

1.20

1.67

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

24 de Setiembre

1.53

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

1.20

allows per match

24 de Setiembre

1.67

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

24 de Setiembre+0.00on par

Club Sp. San Lorenzo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

24 de Setiembre ↓

Club Sp. San Lorenzo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

24 de Setiembre or draw

59%

24 de Setiembre or Club Sp. San Lorenzo

74%

Draw or Club Sp. San Lorenzo

66%

Winning margin

24 de Setiembre wins by 2+

15%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

24 de Setiembre 1+ goals

72%

24 de Setiembre 2+ goals

37%

24 de Setiembre 3+ goals

14%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1+ goals

76%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo 2+ goals

42%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

24 de Setiembre (draw refunded)

45%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

24 de Setiembre at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Club Sp. San Lorenzo away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.04 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

24 de Setiembre attack 1.53 + Club Sp. San Lorenzo defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.29

Club Sp. San Lorenzo attack 1.20 + 24 de Setiembre defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

24 de Setiembre scores more

34%

level

26%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo scores more

41%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Club Sp. San Lorenzo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff