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22 de Julio vs Atlético Vinotinto — Liga Pro Serie B 2026

22 de Julio
22 de Julio
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Vinotinto
Atlético Vinotinto
A. Rosero 45'
8/28/2025Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Relegation Round - 1Estadio Folke Anderson

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

22 de Julio42%
×Draw33%
Atlético Vinotinto25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

22 de Julio
1.03
Atlético Vinotinto
0.71

22 de Julio creates 45% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 16 away

creates per match

22 de Julio
0.88
Atlético Vinotinto
0.81

allows per match

22 de Julio
0.60
Atlético Vinotinto
1.19

finishing

22 de Julio+0.00on par
Atlético Vinotinto+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

22 de Julio ↓

Atlético Vinotinto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

22 de Julio or draw
75%
22 de Julio or Atlético Vinotinto
67%
Draw or Atlético Vinotinto
58%

Winning margin

22 de Julio wins by 2+
17%
Atlético Vinotinto wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

22 de Julio 1+ goals
64%
22 de Julio 2+ goals
28%
22 de Julio 3+ goals
9%
Atlético Vinotinto 1+ goals
51%
Atlético Vinotinto 2+ goals
16%
Atlético Vinotinto 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

22 de Julio (draw refunded)
63%
Atlético Vinotinto (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

22 de Julio at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.60 · 25 matches

Atlético Vinotinto away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

22 de Julio attack 0.88 + Atlético Vinotinto defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.03

Atlético Vinotinto attack 0.81 + 22 de Julio defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

22 de Julio scores more
42%
level
33%
Atlético Vinotinto scores more
25%

22 de Julio at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "22 de Julio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
A. Rosero
90+2'
22
Atlético
E. Valencia
Manager: E. Valencia
L. Soler
Manager: L. Soler

Liga Pro Serie B: 22 de Julio 1–0 Atlético Vinotinto

22 de Julio beat Atlético Vinotinto 1-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on August 28, 2025.

Goals: A. Rosero (45').

The match was played at Estadio Folke Anderson in Esmeraldas.