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2 de Mayo vs Sportivo Luqueno — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

2 de Mayo
2 de Mayo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Luqueno
5/2/2025Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 17Estadio Monumental Río Parapití

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

2 de Mayo39%
×Draw29%
Sportivo Luqueno32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2 de Mayo
1.18
Sportivo Luqueno
1.04

2 de Mayo creates 13% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 86 away

creates per match

2 de Mayo
0.91
Sportivo Luqueno
1.00

allows per match

2 de Mayo
1.09
Sportivo Luqueno
1.44

finishing

2 de Mayo+0.00on par
Sportivo Luqueno+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

2 de Mayo ↓

Sportivo Luqueno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

2 de Mayo or draw
68%
2 de Mayo or Sportivo Luqueno
71%
Draw or Sportivo Luqueno
61%

Winning margin

2 de Mayo wins by 2+
17%
Sportivo Luqueno wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

2 de Mayo 1+ goals
69%
2 de Mayo 2+ goals
33%
2 de Mayo 3+ goals
12%
Sportivo Luqueno 1+ goals
65%
Sportivo Luqueno 2+ goals
28%
Sportivo Luqueno 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

2 de Mayo (draw refunded)
55%
Sportivo Luqueno (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

2 de Mayo at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.09 · 33 matches

Sportivo Luqueno away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.44 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

2 de Mayo attack 0.91 + Sportivo Luqueno defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.18

Sportivo Luqueno attack 1.00 + 2 de Mayo defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

2 de Mayo scores more
39%
level
29%
Sportivo Luqueno scores more
32%

2 de Mayo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "2 de Mayo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: 2 de Mayo vs Sportivo Luqueno

2 de Mayo and Sportivo Luqueno drew 1-1 in Division Profesional - Apertura on May 2, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental Río Parapití in Pedro Juan Caballero.