2 de Mayo 1–2 Sportivo Ameliano: Result & Stats

2 de Mayo

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Sportivo Ameliano

4/10/2026

Division Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 16Estadio Monumental Rio Parapiti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

2 de Mayo34%

×Draw30%

Sportivo Ameliano36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

2 de MayoExpected goals in this matchSportivo Ameliano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.06

2 de Mayo

1.01

Sportivo Ameliano

1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 55 away

0.91

creates per match

1.04

1.09

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

2 de Mayo

0.91

Sportivo Ameliano

1.04

allows per match

2 de Mayo

1.09

Sportivo Ameliano

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

2 de Mayo+0.00on par

Sportivo Ameliano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

2 de Mayo ↓

Sportivo Ameliano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

2 de Mayo or draw

64%

2 de Mayo or Sportivo Ameliano

70%

Draw or Sportivo Ameliano

66%

Winning margin

2 de Mayo wins by 2+

13%

Sportivo Ameliano wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

2 de Mayo 1+ goals

64%

2 de Mayo 2+ goals

27%

2 de Mayo 3+ goals

8%

Sportivo Ameliano 1+ goals

65%

Sportivo Ameliano 2+ goals

29%

Sportivo Ameliano 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

2 de Mayo (draw refunded)

48%

Sportivo Ameliano (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

2 de Mayo at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.09 · 33 matches

Sportivo Ameliano away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.11 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

2 de Mayo attack 0.91 + Sportivo Ameliano defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.01

Sportivo Ameliano attack 1.04 + 2 de Mayo defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

2 de Mayo scores more

34%

level

30%

Sportivo Ameliano scores more

36%

Sportivo Ameliano at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Sportivo Ameliano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff