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2 de Mayo vs Pastoreo — Division Intermedia 2018

2 de Mayo
2 de Mayo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Pastoreo
Pastoreo
5/21/2023Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 9Estadio Monumental Río Parapití

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

2 de Mayo45%
×Draw26%
Pastoreo29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2 de Mayo
1.46
Pastoreo
1.10

2 de Mayo creates 33% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 60 away

creates per match

2 de Mayo
1.65
Pastoreo
1.25

allows per match

2 de Mayo
0.96
Pastoreo
1.27

finishing

2 de Mayo+0.00on par
Pastoreo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

2 de Mayo ↓

Pastoreo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

2 de Mayo or draw
71%
2 de Mayo or Pastoreo
74%
Draw or Pastoreo
55%

Winning margin

2 de Mayo wins by 2+
22%
Pastoreo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

2 de Mayo 1+ goals
77%
2 de Mayo 2+ goals
43%
2 de Mayo 3+ goals
18%
Pastoreo 1+ goals
67%
Pastoreo 2+ goals
30%
Pastoreo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

2 de Mayo (draw refunded)
61%
Pastoreo (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

2 de Mayo at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.96 · 77 matches

Pastoreo away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.27 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

2 de Mayo attack 1.65 + Pastoreo defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.46

Pastoreo attack 1.25 + 2 de Mayo defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

2 de Mayo scores more
45%
level
26%
Pastoreo scores more
29%

2 de Mayo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "2 de Mayo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: 2 de Mayo 2–0 Pastoreo

2 de Mayo beat Pastoreo 2-0 in Division Intermedia on May 21, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental Río Parapití in Pedro Juan Caballero.