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2 de Mayo vs Martin Ledesma — Division Intermedia 2018

2 de Mayo
2 de Mayo
FT
2 – 0
Martin Ledesma
Martin Ledesma
8/5/2018Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 22Estadio Monumental Río Parapití (Pedro Juan Caballero)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

2 de Mayo51%
×Draw26%
Martin Ledesma23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2 de Mayo
1.50
Martin Ledesma
0.92

2 de Mayo creates 63% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 61 away

creates per match

2 de Mayo
1.65
Martin Ledesma
0.87

allows per match

2 de Mayo
0.96
Martin Ledesma
1.34

finishing

2 de Mayo+0.00on par
Martin Ledesma+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

2 de Mayo ↓

Martin Ledesma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

2 de Mayo or draw
77%
2 de Mayo or Martin Ledesma
74%
Draw or Martin Ledesma
49%

Winning margin

2 de Mayo wins by 2+
26%
Martin Ledesma wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

2 de Mayo 1+ goals
78%
2 de Mayo 2+ goals
44%
2 de Mayo 3+ goals
19%
Martin Ledesma 1+ goals
60%
Martin Ledesma 2+ goals
23%
Martin Ledesma 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

2 de Mayo (draw refunded)
69%
Martin Ledesma (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

2 de Mayo at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.96 · 77 matches

Martin Ledesma away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.34 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

2 de Mayo attack 1.65 + Martin Ledesma defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.50

Martin Ledesma attack 0.87 + 2 de Mayo defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

2 de Mayo scores more
51%
level
26%
Martin Ledesma scores more
23%

2 de Mayo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "2 de Mayo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: 2 de Mayo vs Martin Ledesma

2 de Mayo beat Martin Ledesma 2-0 in Division Intermedia on August 5, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental Río Parapití (Pedro Juan Caballero).