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2 de Mayo vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo — Division Intermedia 2026

2 de Mayo
2 de Mayo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
J. Dominguez 18'
J. Llano 2'
S. Galeano 66'
6/5/2023Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 11Estadio Monumental Río Parapití

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

2 de Mayo42%
×Draw27%
Club Sp. San Lorenzo30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2 de Mayo
1.33
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
1.08

2 de Mayo creates 23% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 92 away

creates per match

2 de Mayo
1.63
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
1.20

allows per match

2 de Mayo
0.96
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
1.04

finishing

2 de Mayo+0.00on par
Club Sp. San Lorenzo+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

2 de Mayo ↓

Club Sp. San Lorenzo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

2 de Mayo or draw
70%
2 de Mayo or Club Sp. San Lorenzo
73%
Draw or Club Sp. San Lorenzo
58%

Winning margin

2 de Mayo wins by 2+
19%
Club Sp. San Lorenzo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

2 de Mayo 1+ goals
74%
2 de Mayo 2+ goals
38%
2 de Mayo 3+ goals
15%
Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1+ goals
66%
Club Sp. San Lorenzo 2+ goals
29%
Club Sp. San Lorenzo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

2 de Mayo (draw refunded)
58%
Club Sp. San Lorenzo (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

2 de Mayo at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.96 · 76 matches

Club Sp. San Lorenzo away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.04 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

2 de Mayo attack 1.63 + Club Sp. San Lorenzo defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.33

Club Sp. San Lorenzo attack 1.20 + 2 de Mayo defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

2 de Mayo scores more
42%
level
27%
Club Sp. San Lorenzo scores more
30%

2 de Mayo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "2 de Mayo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
J. Llano
18'
J. Dominguez
66'
S. Galeano
90+1'
M. Dure
90+1'
M. Dure

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: 2 de Mayo 2–1 Club Sp. San Lorenzo

2 de Mayo beat Club Sp. San Lorenzo 2-1 in Division Intermedia on June 5, 2023.

Goals: J. Llano (2'), J. Dominguez (18'), S. Galeano (66').

The match was played at Estadio Monumental Río Parapití in Pedro Juan Caballero.