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1980 Wien vs Slovan HAC — Landesliga - Wien 2019

1980 Wien
1980 Wien
FT
5 – 3
Slovan HAC
Slovan HAC
5/20/2023Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 26Franz Koci Anlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

1980 Wien53%
×Draw21%
Slovan HAC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1980 Wien
2.16
Slovan HAC
1.49

1980 Wien creates 45% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 74 away

creates per match

1980 Wien
2.17
Slovan HAC
1.45

allows per match

1980 Wien
1.53
Slovan HAC
2.15

finishing

1980 Wien+0.00on par
Slovan HAC+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1980 Wien ↓

Slovan HAC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

1980 Wien or draw
73%
1980 Wien or Slovan HAC
79%
Draw or Slovan HAC
47%

Winning margin

1980 Wien wins by 2+
31%
Slovan HAC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

1980 Wien 1+ goals
88%
1980 Wien 2+ goals
63%
1980 Wien 3+ goals
36%
Slovan HAC 1+ goals
77%
Slovan HAC 2+ goals
44%
Slovan HAC 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

1980 Wien (draw refunded)
67%
Slovan HAC (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1980 Wien at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.53 · 47 matches

Slovan HAC away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.15 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1980 Wien attack 2.17 + Slovan HAC defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.16

Slovan HAC attack 1.45 + 1980 Wien defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

1980 Wien scores more
53%
level
21%
Slovan HAC scores more
27%

1980 Wien at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "1980 Wien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Wien: 1980 Wien 5–3 Slovan HAC

1980 Wien beat Slovan HAC 5-3 in Landesliga - Wien on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Franz Koci Anlage in Wien.