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1980 Wien vs Red Star Penzing — Landesliga - Wien 2019

1980 Wien
1980 Wien
FT
2 – 0
Red Star Penzing
Red Star Penzing
8/24/2024Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 2Franz Koci Anlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

1980 Wien49%
×Draw22%
Red Star Penzing29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1980 Wien
1.94
Red Star Penzing
1.46

1980 Wien creates 33% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 30 away

creates per match

1980 Wien
2.17
Red Star Penzing
1.40

allows per match

1980 Wien
1.53
Red Star Penzing
1.70

finishing

1980 Wien+0.00on par
Red Star Penzing+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1980 Wien ↓

Red Star Penzing →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

1980 Wien or draw
71%
1980 Wien or Red Star Penzing
78%
Draw or Red Star Penzing
51%

Winning margin

1980 Wien wins by 2+
27%
Red Star Penzing wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

1980 Wien 1+ goals
86%
1980 Wien 2+ goals
58%
1980 Wien 3+ goals
30%
Red Star Penzing 1+ goals
77%
Red Star Penzing 2+ goals
43%
Red Star Penzing 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

1980 Wien (draw refunded)
63%
Red Star Penzing (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1980 Wien at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.53 · 47 matches

Red Star Penzing away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.70 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1980 Wien attack 2.17 + Red Star Penzing defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.94

Red Star Penzing attack 1.40 + 1980 Wien defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

1980 Wien scores more
49%
level
22%
Red Star Penzing scores more
29%

1980 Wien at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "1980 Wien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Wien: 1980 Wien 2–0 Red Star Penzing

1980 Wien beat Red Star Penzing 2-0 in Landesliga - Wien on August 24, 2024.

The match was played at Franz Koci Anlage in Wien.