1980 Wien 1–1 Mannswörth: Result & Stats

1980 Wien

FT

1 – 1

Mannswörth

5/26/2023

Landesliga - Wien · Wien - 30Franz Koci Anlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

1980 Wien59%

×Draw19%

Mannswörth22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1980 WienExpected goals in this matchMannswörth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

1.39

1980 Wien

2.38

Mannswörth

1.39

1980 Wien creates 71% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 59 away

2.17

creates per match

1.24

1.53

allows per match

2.58

creates per match

1980 Wien

2.17

Mannswörth

1.24

allows per match

1980 Wien

1.53

Mannswörth

2.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

1980 Wien+0.00on par

Mannswörth+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1980 Wien ↓

Mannswörth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

1980 Wien or draw

78%

1980 Wien or Mannswörth

81%

Draw or Mannswörth

41%

Winning margin

1980 Wien wins by 2+

38%

Mannswörth wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

1980 Wien 1+ goals

91%

1980 Wien 2+ goals

68%

1980 Wien 3+ goals

42%

Mannswörth 1+ goals

75%

Mannswörth 2+ goals

40%

Mannswörth 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

1980 Wien (draw refunded)

73%

Mannswörth (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1980 Wien at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.53 · 47 matches

Mannswörth away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.58 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1980 Wien attack 2.17 + Mannswörth defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.38

Mannswörth attack 1.24 + 1980 Wien defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

1980 Wien scores more

59%

level

19%

Mannswörth scores more

22%

1980 Wien at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "1980 Wien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff