1980 Wien 0–2 Donau: Result & Stats

1980 Wien

FT

0 – 2

Donau

3/16/2024

Landesliga - Wien · Wien - 18Franz Koci Anlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

1980 Wien43%

×Draw23%

Donau34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1980 WienExpected goals in this matchDonau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.60

1980 Wien

1.81

Donau

1.60

1980 Wien creates 13% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 58 away

2.17

creates per match

1.67

1.53

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

1980 Wien

2.17

Donau

1.67

allows per match

1980 Wien

1.53

Donau

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

1980 Wien+0.00on par

Donau+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1980 Wien ↓

Donau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

1980 Wien or draw

66%

1980 Wien or Donau

77%

Draw or Donau

57%

Winning margin

1980 Wien wins by 2+

23%

Donau wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

1980 Wien 1+ goals

84%

1980 Wien 2+ goals

54%

1980 Wien 3+ goals

27%

Donau 1+ goals

80%

Donau 2+ goals

47%

Donau 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

1980 Wien (draw refunded)

56%

Donau (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1980 Wien at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.53 · 47 matches

Donau away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.45 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1980 Wien attack 2.17 + Donau defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.81

Donau attack 1.67 + 1980 Wien defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

1980 Wien scores more

43%

level

23%

Donau scores more

34%

1980 Wien at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "1980 Wien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff