1960 Hanau 4–1 FC 1906 Erlensee: Result & Stats

1960 Hanau

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

FC 1906 Erlensee

Unknown 90+8'

Ronaldo 78'

A. Alikhil 55'

Z. Amiri 18'

N. Damm 79'

9/2/2023

Oberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 6Herbert-Dröse-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

1960 Hanau51%

×Draw22%

FC 1906 Erlensee26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1960 HanauExpected goals in this matchFC 1906 Erlensee

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.31

1960 Hanau

1.91

FC 1906 Erlensee

1.31

1960 Hanau creates 46% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 57 away

1.83

creates per match

1.16

1.46

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

1960 Hanau

1.83

FC 1906 Erlensee

1.16

allows per match

1960 Hanau

1.46

FC 1906 Erlensee

1.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

1960 Hanau+0.00on par

FC 1906 Erlensee+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1960 Hanau ↓

FC 1906 Erlensee →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

1960 Hanau or draw

74%

1960 Hanau or FC 1906 Erlensee

78%

Draw or FC 1906 Erlensee

49%

Winning margin

1960 Hanau wins by 2+

29%

FC 1906 Erlensee wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

1960 Hanau 1+ goals

85%

1960 Hanau 2+ goals

57%

1960 Hanau 3+ goals

30%

FC 1906 Erlensee 1+ goals

73%

FC 1906 Erlensee 2+ goals

38%

FC 1906 Erlensee 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

1960 Hanau (draw refunded)

66%

FC 1906 Erlensee (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1960 Hanau at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.46 · 52 matches

FC 1906 Erlensee away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.98 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1960 Hanau attack 1.83 + FC 1906 Erlensee defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.91

FC 1906 Erlensee attack 1.16 + 1960 Hanau defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

1960 Hanau scores more

51%

level

22%

FC 1906 Erlensee scores more

26%

1960 Hanau at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "1960 Hanau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

Z. Amiri

55'

A. Alikhil

78'

Ronaldo

79'

N. Damm

90+8'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff